The Cauchy estimator of an autoregressive root uses the sign of the first lag as instrumental variable. The resulting IV t-type statistic follows a standard normal limiting distribution under a uni…
Nonparametric test procedures in predictive regressions have χ2 limiting null distributions under both low and high regressor persistence, but low local power compared to misspecified linear predi…
This paper introduces formal monitoring procedures as a risk-management tool. Continuously monitoring risk forecasts allows practitioners to swiftly review and update their forecasting procedures a…