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Determining Key Parameters in Riots Using Lexicographic Directional Differentiation

This article investigates parametric sensitivities of rioting activity, based on a model of the 2005 French riots. Previously validated against a comprehensive data set, the aforementioned modeling efforts were multiscale in nature and applied at the provincial scale for all of France and the municipal scale in the Île-de-France region around Paris. The governing dynamics at the municipal scale include a bandwagon effect, observed in rioting activity wherein an outburst of activity occurs once a “tipping point” threshold is reached in the people engaging in the activity. This tipping point mechanism is modeled using a nonsmooth function, yielding a framework of nonsmooth ODEs, which makes conventional theory and methods unsuitable. In this article, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the municipal-scale model by adopting a recently developed tool in nonsmooth analysis called the lexicographic directional derivative. Numerical solutions are provided from which we can conclude the relative importance of different parameters in the model, in order to discover the underlying mechanisms that play a crucial role in driving the riot activities. It is shown that the exit/removal rate from rioting activity and geographic proximity have the greatest impact on the dynamics of the social contagion. On the other hand, the initial rioting activity and the tipping point seem less influential.

Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED MATHEMATICS; Vol.81 No.3 May-June 2021

No. Panggil

-

Penerbit

: .,

Deskripsi Fisik

p. 1303 - 1331

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

-

Tipe Isi

-

Tipe Media

-

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

-

Subjek

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
GENERALIZED DERIVATIVES
SOCIAL CONTAGIONS
RIOT BEHAVIOR
NONSMOOTH DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
LEXICOGRAPHIC DERIVATIVES

Info Detail Spesifik

https://doi.org/10.1137/20M131583X

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Matthew Ackley, Peter Stechlinski

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