Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial-Temporal Point Processes With Covariates | PERPUSTAKAAN UNIVERSITAS KATOLIK PARAHYANGAN

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Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial-Temporal Point Processes With Covariates

Park, Junhyung - Nama Orang; Bertozzi, Andrea L. - Nama Orang; Schoenberg, Frederic Palk - Nama Orang; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey - Nama Orang;

Reported gang-related violent crimes in Los Angeles, California, from 1/1/14 to 12/31/17 are modeled using spatial–temporal marked Hawkes point processes with covariates. We propose an algorithm to estimate the spatial-temporally varying background rate nonparametrically as a function of demographic covariates. Kernel smoothing and generalized additive models are used in an attempt to model the background rate as closely as possible in an effort to differentiate inhomogeneity in the background rate from causal clustering or triggering of events. The models are fit to data from 2014 to 2016 and evaluated using data from 2017, based on log-likelihood and superthinned residuals. The impact of nonrandomized violence interruption performed by The City of Los Angeles Mayor’s Office of Gang Reduction Youth Development (GRYD) Incident Response (IR) Program is assessed by comparing the triggering associated with GRYD IR Program events to the triggering associated with sub-sampled non-GRYD events selected to have a similar spatial–temporal distribution. The results suggest that GRYD IR Program violence interruption yields a reduction of approximately 18.3% in the retaliation rate in locations more than 130 m from the original reported crimes, and a reduction of 14.2% in retaliations within 130 m.

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Informasi Detail

Judul Seri: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION (JASA); Vol.116 No.536 December 2021
No. Panggil: -
Penerbit: : .,
Deskripsi Fisik: p. 1674-1687
Bahasa: English
ISBN/ISSN: -
Klasifikasi: NONE
Tipe Isi: -
Tipe Media: -
Tipe Pembawa: -
Edisi: -
Subjek: CRIMINOLOGY
POINT PROCESSES
GANG VIOLENCE
SELF-EXCITING
VIOLENCE INTERRUPTION
Info Detail Spesifik: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1898408
Pernyataan Tanggungjawab: Junhyung Park, Frederic Palk Schoenberg, Andrea L. Bertozzi, P. Jeffrey Brantingham

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