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Fast, Optimal, and Targeted Predictions Using Parameterized Decision Analysis

Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision tasks of interest, which we represent via functionals. Although classical decision analysis extracts predictions from a Bayesian model, these predictions are often difficult to interpret and slow to compute. Instead, we design a class of parameterized actions for Bayesian decision analysis that produce optimal, scalable, and simple targeted predictions. For a wide variety of action parameterizations and loss functions—including linear actions with sparsity constraints for targeted variable selection—we derive a convenient representation of the optimal targeted prediction that yields efficient and interpretable solutions. Customized out-of-sample predictive metrics are developed to evaluate and compare among targeted predictors. Through careful use of the posterior predictive distribution, we introduce a procedure that identifies a set of near-optimal, or acceptable targeted predictors, which provide unique insights into the features and level of complexity needed for accurate targeted prediction. Simulations demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and variable selection capabilities. Targeted predictions are constructed for physical activity (PA) data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to better predict and understand the characteristics of intraday PA. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION (JASA); Vol.117 No.540 December 2022

No. Panggil

-

Penerbit

: .,

Deskripsi Fisik

p. 1875-1886

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

-

Tipe Media

-

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

-

Subjek

VARIABLE SELECTION
BAYESIAN STATISTICS
FUNCTIONAL DATA
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY

Info Detail Spesifik

https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1891926

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Daniel R. Kowal

Versi lain/terkait

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