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Crop Yield Prediction Using Bayesian Spatially Varying Coefficient Models with Functional Predictors

Reliable prediction for crop yield is crucial for economic planning, food security monitoring, and agricultural risk management. This study aims to develop a crop yield forecasting model at large spatial scales using meteorological variables closely related to crop growth. The influence of climate patterns on agricultural productivity can be spatially inhomogeneous due to local soil and environmental conditions. We propose a Bayesian spatially varying functional model (BSVFM) to predict county-level corn yield for five Midwestern states, based on annual precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperature trajectories modeled as multivariate functional predictors. The proposed model accommodates spatial correlation and measurement errors of functional predictors, and respects the spatially heterogeneous relationship between the response and associated predictors by allowing the functional coefficients to vary over space. The model also incorporates a Bayesian variable selection device to further expand its capacity to accommodate spatial heterogeneity. The proposed method is demonstrated to outperform other highly competitive methods in corn yield prediction, owing to the flexibility of allowing spatial heterogeneity with spatially varying coefficients in our model. Our study provides further insights into understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Ketersediaan

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION (JASA); Vol.118 No.541 March 2023

No. Panggil

-

Penerbit

: .,

Deskripsi Fisik

p. 70-83

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

-

Tipe Media

-

Tipe Pembawa

-

Edisi

-

Subjek

BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL
SPATIAL FUNCTIONAL DATA
SPATIALLY VARYING COEFFICIENT MODEL
SCALAR-ON-FUNCTION REGRESSIONS
SPATIAL MODEL SELECTION

Info Detail Spesifik

https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2022.2123333

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

Yeonjoo Park, Bo Li, Yehua Li

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