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Taking a Chance in the Classroom: Puzzling Probabilities of Probability Puzzles
Puzzles are an entertaining way to teach probability. But for certain puzzles often the solution probabilities are incorrect. Probability calculations require probability distributions. When the puzzle does not include this information, probabilities claiming to be the unconditional correct answer are incorrect. The probability of an outcome of a past event is either 1 when the outcome is favorable or 0 when it is not. Puzzles that ask for the probability of a past event’s outcome and give the probability of that outcome before the event occurs are incorrect. Various classical puzzles commit these errors using axiomatic, relative frequency, or empirical frequency probability. There are simple ways to resolve these errors. Twelve lessons are provided to avoid misteaching and incorrect answers.
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